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What’s next?
While at first glance this query might seem innocuous, the more you think about it the more powerful it becomes.
Analysts make their living off this question, it’s the basis on which our markets are derived, and it is the bread & butter of journalism – not to mention providing endless fodder for blogs *cough*.
So with the first decade of the new century and new millennium coming to a close, it makes sense to dust off this old chestnut & look forward to what 2010 may bring for my favorite fields; namely, social media, technology, internet culture, and all that jazz.
1. The Waning of the Blog – People are inherently lazy, and traditional blogs are getting to be too much work. When you can just email anything you want to Posterous to start an account, or have an amazing looking Tumblr blog in less than 10 clicks, you know the days of Blogspot and Typepad are numbered. That being said, Wordpress isn’t in any danger – it has solidified its position of being the “professional” CMS of choice, and that isn’t going to change.
2. The iPad is Good, but not Great - Hype so thick you could cut it with a knife. When Apple finally pulls the veil off the most anticipated gadget since the iPhone there is going to be lots of initial gushing, but 6 months down the road we are going to realize that while it is a capable (and drop-dead gorgeous) device, it isn’t going to immediately ushers in the much-toted “era of the tablet” – that will probably come two or three generations down the road.
3. The Race to Build The Dashboard – 2010 is going to see a overarching realization that we just have too much to keep track of online, which will naturally lead to the need for a “dashboard” type service where we can manage all our stuff. While there already decent contenders (read: Brizzly, Hootsuite, Netvibes) another player will come along that makes us all go “why didn’t this happen sooner!”
4. Corporations Begin to Embrace The Cloud – 2010 will also see a major shakeup in the cloud. With all the buzz surrounding its future potential, the big players are going to consolidate, drive prices down, and the let the riff-raff die off. This also means that enterprises will finally feel comfortable following consumers into the cloud. The result? A shift in organizational thought that moves the IT department from a cost centre to a profit centre, focusing on the differentiating factors of uptime, cost, and speed of delivery.
5. Take Your ID Everywhere – As @devvyn expertly pointed out, in 2010 we are going to be seeing a lot more of those little “Facebook Connect” buttons. Services are going to start realizing that the key to driving those conversion rates through the roof is to eliminate (well, technically, lower) the barrier to entry. Data portability will become the expected norm, not the frilly extra.
6. What are torrents? – Demonoid, Mininova, Pirate Bay, and ISOhunt – 2009 was not a kind year for torrents. Seeing what a beating the big players are taking, it won’t be surprising to see the remaining trackers so private, leaving the vast majority of casual users out in the cold. The result? The proliferation of file hosts like Mediafire, Rapidshare, Megaupload, and Hotfile. Easier to use than torrents & quicker to spread en masse, don’t be surprised it you start looking for links instead of torrents.
7. Say Hello To Geo – It is kind of a no-brainer that mobile will play a bigger role in 2010 (you could see that one coming from a mile away) but the driving factor will be geo-location. Integration with our cars, integration of our social networks, and integration with our phones will only expedite the inevitable. For proof, look no further then the next prediction…
8. Killer App 2K10 – Foursquare. Get used to hearing that name, because it is going to be everywhere in 2010. Smart businesses will leverage it, and detractors will grow to hate it with lightning speed. The nearest competitors (Gowalla & Loopt) will get bought and rolled into a half-baked strategy *cough* Friendfeed *cough*
9. Personalized All Your Links – A couple services to do this already exist (like Awe.sm), but this is going to be the year where getting your own is in vogue – even if you have to pay a couple bucks for it (or fancy extras like tracking & analytics). Be afraid Bit.ly…unless you are the one to start offering it.
10. Dirty It Up & Tighten The Kerning – This year we will finally witness the death throws of cliche web 2.0 design aesthetic such as missing vowels, excessive glossy, and seas of blues/green hues. Instead we will be swapping them for a resurgence of “handmade” and grunge looks (think pencils on crumpled paper), enormous imagery, typography as design elements, and an over-abundance of stark minimalism.
Forty More Rambling (And Vague) Predictions
3D in the home the new WiMax…exciting, but ultimately not embraced. Movies are another story.
Augmented Reality starts to live up to its unending hype with one or two marginally useful apps.
Clean IT becomes more of a serious offering rather then a CSR pipe dream.
Google rolls Wave into Gmail…no one notices.
Facebook goes public.
LinkedIn buys up startups and quietly becomes a major force to reckon with.
Twitter buys Tweetdeck.
Myspace is given its death rites and BandCamp / Soundcloud become the new cool for artists.
Spotify comes to N.America – cue insanity.
Netbook sized form-factor becomes the norm. Even 15″ screens start to look like behemoths.
Android scraps together enough market share by flooding the market with devices that they threaten BB.
Something crazy happens between Firefox and Chrome in between sessions of battering IE.
Flash comes to the iPhone – but it will come with some sort of horrible catch22.
Dropbox continues to quietly dominate. Gets interest from Google & Amazon.
Groupon is on the tip of everyone’s tongue.
Microsoft’s online Office offering blows everyone away…surprisingly.
Google Docs becomes more ubiquitous & eyes Zoho.
Mobile ads become a ridiculous headache since it becomes increasingly difficult to stand out & monetize.
YouTube does something that completely changes the face of online video – and no one saw it coming.
Grooveshark becomes the Pandora/Last.fm hybrid everyone is wishing for.
All of a sudden people will realize Ning is everywhere – and they will promptly get massive attention.
Sys Admins will finally start moving to windows 7 – reluctantly.
Apple buys Animoto to integrate into iLife.
Google makes a big play into real estate search and/or integrates it into the core of Maps.
Feedburner bites the dust.
Technorati becomes (more) irrelevant.
Online photo editors get to the point where they are a threat to Ps and CS – namely Aviary.
Vimeo keeps growing and solidifies its moniker as the “Anti-YouTube” – gets loads of backing.
Hulu opens up to Canada (fingers crossed).
Slideshare creates an online deck creator akin to 280slides.
Flickr uncouples from Yahoo – the world rejoices.
Adobe Air gains momentum & becomes more a desktop staple.
Social networking malware becomes just as prevalent as its desktop forefathers.
Socialytics becomes a big buzzword, apps like Klout flourish.
iTunes gets a web app thanks to LaLa – this could go either really good, or really bad.
No one will talk about life streaming anymore, because we’re all doing it.
The web is flooded with half-baked infographics – I weep.
The next iPhone has a slightly re-designed aesthetic. Time to throw out those old cases.
Someone will figure out how to offer good cloud-based web hosting for free. People go bananas.
Microsoft cuts a deal with Wolfram Alpha. Why? Because no one else wants to.
Finally, a hat tip to Michael Klein, who’s original post outlining his top five predictions of 2010 created the spark which prompted this post.
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I’m starting to love Gowalla. At first I wasn’t sure what the point was but after a while I truly began to understand the true power of this app. It’s a great way to meet new people, and also be a great way to stay connected. I love it!